Off Day: The Coorspiracy*
Watch out MLB! All of the Rockies’ outstanding success at home this year (2 games over five-hundred) is directly attributable to the humidor and the way the Rockies’ staff uses it to place illegally waterlogged baseballs in situations where it benefits the Rockies, says disgruntled Brewers third baseman and ex-Rockie Jeff Cirillo.
The story has been circling around the blogosphere for a while, but I decided that it was time for DSZ to weigh in when I heard the latest news on the subject courtesy of Purple Row. Apparently, Joe Sheehan from the Baseball Prospectus has confirmed the obvious: that the humidor has been effective in lowering the amount of runs at Coors Field, and though improved Rockies pitching can be attributed to some of the decrease in runs, it can’t account for all of it. Sheehan cites a number of statistics pointing at the effect of the humidor and how it’s slowed baseball down in the Mile High City, but his article is hardly condemning to someone who puts a little thought into it. But the worst part of all of this is that it comes this year, of all four years since the humidor was installed. Sheehan points out that Coors’ offensive numbers have been down since the humidor was put into place in 2002, but I guess the Rockies just weren’t playing well enough for anyone to care. Now that the Rockies are playing well and are involved in a pennant race however, I guess it’s time we address the old humidor question…But on to the current rumblings.
What I just can’t believe through all of this is how people are completely forgetting the purpose of the humidor. Cirillo told reporters after the Brewers’ first game at Coors that he could feel a remarkable difference between the balls that the Brewers used for practice and the official balls used during the game with the Rockies.
“One looked like a round ball and the other looked like an oblong ball,” Cirillo said. “And even some of the infielders said when they were throwing across the diamond, the ball felt a little heavy.”
This story exploded into Cirillo’s Coorspiracy*, which has spread like wildfire first across the internet and then down to the traditional news media. Apparently, not only are the Coors balls illegal (and I’ll get to that in a minute), but now the Rockies’ staff is deliberately placing drier balls when the Rockies come up to bat, and wetter ones when opposing teams bat - accounting for the Rox incredible success at home this year. Not only that, but according to some reporters, Cirillo’s theory was vindicated when the Rockies lost a 1-0 game to the Brewers in the second game of the series.
There are several problems with all of this. Is everyone forgetting the original purpose of the humidor? The balls used before 2002 at Coors were thoroughly examined by the Rockies’ staff, who concluded that the dry balls were actually not meeting MLB regulations because they were too small and not heavy enough. This was confirmed by the comissioner when he approved the humidor before the 2002 season. As has been forgotten, I guess by everyone, the reason Cirillo could feel a difference in the two sets of balls was because the ones the Brewers were using to practice with were the ‘illegal’ balls, having been through a plane trip and then sitting out in Colorado’s dry climate for a day or two. Now, Cirillo has a point that the balls may be too waterlogged and in fact violating MLB regulations on the other end of the spectrum. This should be investigated. But Cirillo’s argument that using the humidor somehow automatically makes the balls illegal, when in fact the humidor was implemented to make the balls meet MLB standards, is ridiculous.
Even Sheehan’s logic is fundamentally flawed. We all know that before the advent of the humidor, Coors Field was playing well above average in every offensive statistic. We also know that part of the reasoning behind the humidor was to bring it in line with most other Major League ballparks. All of Sheehan’s statistics show that the humidor has dropped Coors Field in all offensive categories - but in no category has Coors dropped to the bottom. In most categories, in fact, it has remained in the top 15 parks. Sheehan only looks at it from one perspective, and does not go on with his study, like he should, to compare the new Coors numbers with the rest of the league to see if Coors is now playing like most other parks (which it is) or if the humidor is overcompensating. Sheehan also fails to compare the shift in Coors’ numbers with baseball’s overall offensive trends in the last few years. Sheehan only compares Coors to Coors, confirming the absolutely obvious. This reduces the “study” to absurd and strips any ’scientific’ or even ‘objective’ merit from Sheehan’s claims, which is that somehow the humidor has so drastically changed baseball that we can’t even recognize the sport anymore when it gets played in Denver. In fact, most people who have watched a game at Coors instead of just watching the stat books have noticed that the game plays more like, well, a baseball game now. If that’s a bad thing for baseball, I guess the entire league needs drastic changes to make baseball less like baseball.
Finally, we get to Cirillo’s Coorspiracy*, which is that the Rockies change balls in the middle of their games to give the offense an extra boost of ‘dry, light balls’ when they need it. This is utterly ridiculous for a number of reasons. First, the Rockies aren’t a great team at home - they’re only two games over five hundred at Coors! The Brewers are getting much more of an advantage from their “normal” home park than the Rockies are, playing 9 games over five hundred in Milwaukee. If the Rockies are switching balls, they’re obviously not doing it very effectively. Plus, not only can I not believe that the Rockies would cheat like that, but if the two sets of balls are ’sssssoooo different’ as Cirillo claims, someone - an opposing pitcher, an umpire, a catcher - would have figured it out by now. Yes Jeff, the Rockies are better this year than they were last year, and much better than when you played on the team - but just because a team improves from one year to the next doesn’t mean there’s a conspiracy behind their play. Hell Jeff, the Tigers’ resurgance is coming out of nowhere this year! I’ll bet they’re doing something to the balls that their pitching staff throws to make them more effective.
With that, we wrap up another exciting Rockies off-day. The Rox are back at it tomorrow with Jeff Francis on the mound to open an important road trip against the San Francisco Giants and later the Los Angeles Dodgers.
*Jeff Cirillo did not use the word ‘Coorspiracy’ to describe his conspiracy theory involving waterlogged baseballs, nor did anyone else as far as I know. I came up with the word while trying to come up with fancy post titles and will therefore take credit for coining the phrase. You are of course welcome to use the word free of charge and mention as often as you like. I think it’s kind’ve catchy myself.
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1. AJ - August 3, 2006 @ 10:04 pm
This is one of the most ridiculous “conspiracy” theories I’ve heard in a long time. If the Rox were actually doing something like that, you would think they could do it right, like you said. If they did that, they may just be leading the division right now. What a joke.
2. Kels - August 4, 2006 @ 11:52 am
Good post.